At least 25.8 million children and adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean live in areas where very severe impacts are forecast due to rainfall deficits or excesses associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon.

This figure compels us to view the issue from a different angle: a disaster depends not only on the amount of rainfall—or lack thereof—but also on the conditions in which that water finds those who are most exposed.

A figure that exposes the risk

This data was published by UNICEF on September 30. According to a preliminary analysis, some 25.8 million children and adolescents—approximately one out of seven in the region—live in municipalities or provinces facing forecasts of very severe impacts due to precipitation deficits (associated with drought) or excessive rainfall linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This distinction is important. UNICEF is not stating that 25.8 million minors have already experienced a drought or a flood. Rather, it is identifying the child population living in territories where the most severe impacts associated with these precipitation fluctuations are predicted. The agency itself notes that these estimates may change as the phenomenon evolves.
 

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The warning comes as El Niño gains strength in the tropical Pacific. On September 10, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported that the phenomenon was intensifying and estimated a greater than 90% probability that it would reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–2027.

For its part, the World Meteorological Organization placed the probability of it persisting until February 2027 at nearly 100%.

However, it’s essential to clarify that a very strong El Niño event does not produce the same consequences everywhere. In other words, its intensity alone does not determine the magnitude of the local effects it causes. The season of the year, the region, and interactions with other climatic factors shape the outcome.

Therefore, the relevant question for children is not merely where there will be less rain or where there will be excessive rainfall. It’s also about what that rain—or lack thereof—will encounter when it arrives.
 

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Encountering different realities

In Central America’s Dry Corridor, UNICEF anticipates that reduced rainfall could affect agricultural production and increase the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition among families already struggling to access food and safe water.

Disruptions to agricultural activities can also impact school attendance and the continuity of learning.

In other areas, the problem may manifest in reverse. Above-average rainfall is forecast for parts of the Pacific coast of Mexico and several South American countries, bringing a higher risk of flooding, infrastructure damage, and disruptions to schools, health services, and water systems.

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In the Amazon region, falling river levels could hinder communication for riverine and Indigenous communities. In other parts of the region, dropping reservoir levels and increased fire risk pose additional threats.

El Niño, therefore, is not a uniform climate experience. For some children, it may mean smaller harvests, less food, and water supply issues. In isolated communities, even a drop in river levels can make accessing services difficult. For others, it could mean a school becomes inaccessible following a flood.

The link between climate and inequality emerges precisely at this intersection, as the same physical phenomenon can have vastly different consequences depending on the resources available to cope with it.

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) identifies potential health effects of El Niño, including risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases, as well as heat-related conditions, respiratory problems linked to fires, food insecurity, displacement, and disruptions to health services.

It also notes that these effects can be particularly severe for populations already facing poverty, migration, displacement, or limited access to essential services.

The Caribbean: less rain, greater vulnerability

In the Caribbean, UNICEF identifies a particularly critical risk. It anticipates that drought conditions could affect the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the Eastern Caribbean and Jamaica while simultaneously exacerbating situations in countries like Cuba and Haiti.

This does not mean El Niño is the cause of these crises, but rather that it can add pressure to pre-existing problems.
 

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PAHO has reached a similar conclusion from a public health perspective. Its regional analysis from September identifies the Caribbean as a hotspot for the current and potential impacts of the 2026–2027 El Niño, warning of risks associated with drought, food insecurity, flooding, wildfires, and vector-borne diseases. This makes the difference between a threat and a vulnerability easier to understand. The former relates to the physical phenomenon: a lack of rain, excessive precipitation, heat, or flooding. The latter depends on factors such as housing, access to water, family income, health services, schools, and a community's capacity to prepare and recover.

When water, food, and schooling are all part of the same problem, the less visible connection highlighted by UNICEF’s alert becomes clear.

A drought can reduce water availability and affect agricultural production. A flood can damage a school or a supply system. Service disruptions can lead to health issues. Loss of income can make it difficult to buy food. And a family that must dedicate more time and resources to meeting basic needs, leaving less margin to cope with a new blow.

This does not mean that every one of these effects will necessarily occur in every territory affected by El Niño. These are impact pathways identified by international organizations, and they depend on the specific characteristics of each location.
PAHO summarizes this logic precisely: anomalies associated with El Niño can impact water, food, livelihoods, health, and infrastructure, and the consequences tend to be more severe for populations that already face difficulties accessing essential services.
 

Inequality, then, emerges not as an automatic consequence of the climate, but as a risk multiplier.

Cuba and its track record of prevention

Cuba's geographic location has historically shaped its climate vulnerability. However, the country has long possessed policies and institutional capacities for disaster readiness, and new initiatives have been documented throughout 2026 to strengthen risk reduction, school safety, early warning systems, and climate change adaptation.

Kamal Kishore, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, stated during a very recent visit to the island: "Alignment between national, provincial, and local levels is one of the Cuban system's main strengths. Communities understand the risks they face and have their own mechanisms to respond to them; this capacity is the foundation upon which further progress can be built."
 

As noted by the Cuba-UN website, the effectiveness of a disaster risk management system depends not only on the quality of its forecasts but also on its ability to translate that information into decisions at all levels, reaching all the way down to local communities.

In this Caribbean nation, achieving such action relies on the integration of scientific institutions, Civil Defense, and government bodies at every level—a coordinated approach that Kishore specifically highlighted.

This coordination is complemented by collaboration among Civil Defense, meteorological and hydrological services, communications sectors, and urban planning agencies; these entities have operated as an integrated system for decades, with their effective functioning proven in practice.

A key strength of this system is its early warning capability regarding threats, which translates scientific data into timely operational decisions. The drought conditions forecast for the coming months bring this connection into sharp focus.
In this context, a major challenge lies in advancing disaster preparedness to prevent or mitigate impacts. The country also has instruments such as La Tarea Vida (Task Life), the State Plan for Confronting Climate Change, approved in 2017, which projects the country's adaptation with a horizon up to 2100.

Within the framework of the United Nations System's cooperation in Cuba, in which the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) participates as one of the 23 signatory agencies of the Cooperation Framework for Sustainable Development, progress is being made on several lines of work with national institutions.

These include collaboration with the European Earth observation program Copernicus, a proposal to the Climate Risk Early Warning Systems initiative to strengthen early warning capabilities and follow up on the workshop regarding seismic risk held in Havana in January 2026.
Cuba’s experience in preparation, early warning, and community organization also holds regional value. Small island states in the Caribbean face similar threats, and the 9th Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction—to be held in Nassau, Bahamas, in March 2027—will provide a forum for sharing these lessons.

During the "Meteoro 2026" exercise, the Presidency of the Republic of Cuba underscored the importance of strengthening preparedness among the general population, command and leadership bodies, and Civil Defense.

During that event last May, President Miguel Díaz-Canel called for response plans to be updated and made concrete on a "defense zone by defense zone" basis. In this context, the forecast for the current hurricane season and the hydrological drought situation were assessed.

Preparing before impact

The figure of 25.8 million therefore holds value beyond the headline. UNICEF presents it not merely as a statistic to tally those affected, but as a tool for anticipation and prevention.

The agency calls for reinforcing nutrition, health, safe water, education, and child protection services—as well as strengthening monitoring systems and anticipatory actions—prior to weather events.

The World Meteorological Organization likewise maintains that the intensity of El Niño increases the likelihood of specific impacts, though it notes that these effects are not guaranteed and must be interpreted according to the specific region and season.
 

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The difference between reacting and anticipating can be decisive for children. A prepared school, a functioning warning system, available safe water, and health services capable of maintaining operations during an emergency do not eliminate the weather phenomenon itself. But their consequences can be mitigated.

El Niño does not choose its victims based on a family's income, the quality of their housing, or their proximity to a hospital. Inequality arises later, when the same phenomenon encounters vastly different capacities to withstand it.

That’s why the figure cited by UNICEF—25.8 million children and adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean living in areas at high risk from the El Niño climate phenomenon—should not be viewed merely as a climate statistic. It also serves as a risk map for children, who will—regrettably—experience the impacts of El Niño unevenly across the region.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff