A key point in Brazilian President Lula’s speech at the Mercosur meeting on Saturday (Dec. 20) was the risk of armed conflict in South America in the face of the threat of US military intervention in Venezuela – which could lead to an attempt to overthrow the current regime of President Nicolás Maduro, possibly triggering a new war of unpredictable proportions in the region.

“More than four decades after the Falklands War, the South American continent is once again haunted by the military presence of an extra-regional power. The limits of international law are being tested,” he said, adding that “an armed intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe for the hemisphere and a dangerous precedent for the world.”

Right now, US troops surround the Caribbean Sea on the Venezuelan border under the pretext of combating drug trafficking. A blockade has been set up to prevent the navigation of oil tankers from the Caribbean country, one of the largest oil producers on the planet.

Oil is the heart of Venezuela’s economy, and US action could cause financial suffocation for the country.

Since September, approximately 25 attacks on vessels in the Caribbean have been carried out by US military forces, killing at least 95 people.

“Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before – Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us,” US President Donald Trump stated in recent days.

The threat has heightened tensions and sparked speculation about what the real US interest in a regime change in Venezuela might be, beyond the alleged fight against drug trafficking.

In an interview with journalists last Thursday (18) at the Planalto presidential palace, Lula said he had held telephone conversations with both Maduro and Trump in an attempt to find a diplomatic solution to the situation.

“I told President Maduro that if he wanted Brazil to help with anything, he had to say what he would like us to do. And I said to Trump, ‘If you think Brazil can contribute, we will be very interested in talking to Venezuela, talking to you, talking to other countries so that we can avoid an armed conflict here in Latin America and in our beloved South America.’ And Brazil really appreciates this, because we share many kilometers of border with Venezuela,” he said at the time.

“Negotiations could be held without war. So, I am always concerned about what lies behind this. Because it cannot be just a matter of overthrowing Maduro. What other interests are there that we are not yet aware of?” the Brazilian president questioned regarding the US motivations for the military threat.

Lula also promised to call Trump again before Christmas. The Brazilian president had already warned Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira not to travel too far from Brazil over the next few weeks in case the situation worsens.

A group of Mercosur members led by Argentina released a joint statement calling for the restoration of democracy and respect for human rights in Venezuela. The document was signed on the sidelines of the bloc’s summit, which took place in Foz do Iguaçu, South Brazil, on Saturday (Dec. 20), under the presidency of Brazil.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva did not sign the statement, nor did Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi. The government’s view is that such a document, signed by Mercosur, could be interpreted by US authorities as support for possible US military action in Venezuela, which is not in Brazil’s interest.

The letter does not mention the tension between the US and Venezuela or the increased US military presence in the Caribbean region. President Donald Trump’s administration does not recognize Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013, as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

The US has been bombing vessels and seizing oil tankers under the pretext of combating drug trafficking routes that supply the US. In President Nicolás Maduro’s opinion, however, there are interests in the country’s oil wealth, and the military buildup in the region is aimed at removing him from power.

The Caribbean country is one of the largest oil producers on the planet. Oil is the heart of Venezuela’s economy, and US action could cause financial suffocation for the country.

Statement

The statement issued yesterday was made in the name of the presidents of Argentina, Javier Milei; Paraguay, Santiago Peña; and Panama, José Raúl Mulino. High-ranking officials from Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru also signed the letter. They expressed “deep concern” about the serious migration, humanitarian, and social crisis in Venezuela, a country suspended from the South American bloc.

“[The leaders] reaffirmed their firm commitment to achieve, through peaceful means, the full restoration of democratic order and unrestricted respect for human rights in Venezuela,” the statement said.

Mercosur was founded in 1991 by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, and accepted Venezuela as a member in 2012. In 2017, however, the country was suspended for breaking democratic order, based on the clauses of the Ushuaia Protocol, signed in 1998, which deals with the democratic commitments of the bloc’s countries.

In the statement, the countries also ratified the validity of the Ushuaia Protocol and reiterated, among other things, “the coordination of mechanisms for the defense of democracy.” They also call for the release of political prisoners.

President Lula did not officially recognize Nicolás Maduro as the winner of the July 2024 elections in Venezuela, but the government has been “deeply cautious” with issues involving the neighboring country.

In this sense, the view of the Brazilian government is that it serves no purpose to approve a statement saying that a political problem must be resolved without mentioning that there is a “threat of military solution” posed by the US.

Catastrophe

In an interview with journalists last Thursday (18) at the Planalto presidential palace, Lula reported that he had held telephone conversations with both Maduro and Trump in an attempt to find a diplomatic solution to the situation. During the Mercosur meeting, he stated that intervention in Venezuela would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and set a dangerous precedent for the world.

“More than four decades after the Falklands War, the South American continent is once again haunted by the military presence of an extra-regional power. The limits of international law are being tested,” he told leaders in his speech.

Argentine President Javier Milei called Nicolás Maduro a “narco-terrorist” and praised the military actions on the Venezuelan coast.

“Argentina welcomes the pressure from the US and Donald Trump to free the Venezuelan people. The time for timidity on this issue is over,” he said in a speech at the Mercosur summit.

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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Saturday (Dec. 20) that the signing of the long-awaited free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur – a bloc formed by Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which was scheduled to take place today, has been tentatively postponed until January.

The statement was made during the opening speech of the Mercosur Summit in Foz do Iguaçu, South Brazil. The meeting marks the end of Brazil’s presidency of the bloc, which will now pass to Paraguay for the next six months.

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Saturday’s meeting was also the date chosen by European leaders for the signing of the agreement to be finalized.

“We had the opportunity to send a key message to the world in defense of multilateralism and to strengthen our strategic position in an increasingly competitive global scenario. But, unfortunately, Europe has not yet made up its mind. European leaders have asked for more time to discuss additional agricultural protection measures,” Lula reported.

The agreement is now expected to be signed in January, he said.

“Yesterday, I received a letter from the presidents of the European Commission [Ursula von der Leyen] and the European Council [António Costa] in which they both express their expectation that the agreement will be approved in January,” the president stated.

Both Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa requested that the Mercosur Summit take place this Saturday, when they would be present, according to Lula, even in face of France’s well-known opposition to the trade agreement, due to fears of a loss of competitiveness in the agricultural sector.

The president reiterated that the postponement, however, was due to a problem with the Italian government, because of internal European Union issues regarding the distribution of funds for agriculture – and not opposition to the agreement itself.

Lula spoke about a telephone conversation he had with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on this issue and said that Europeans are committed to the agreement even though France is opposed to it.

“I had a telephone conversation with her [Giorgia Meloni]. She said verbatim that she will be ready to sign in early January. If she is ready to sign and only France is missing, according to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, there will be no possibility for France, alone, to block the agreement. The agreement will be finalized, and I hope it will be signed, perhaps in the first month of Paraguay’s presidency, by my colleague Santiago Peña [Paraguayan president],” Lula declared.

Background

Negotiated for 26 years, the EU–Mercosur agreement involves a market of 722 million people and a GDP of USD 22 trillion. When signed, it should be one of the most comprehensive free trade agreements on the planet.

In 2019, the general terms of the agreement, which began in 1999, were unveiled. Last year, in Montevideo, Uruguay, a partnership agreement was signed, on the basis of which the texts of the trade treaty itself could be drafted for subsequent final signature.

Further partnerships

In his speech at the opening of Saturday’s summit, President Lula stated that Mercosur will remain committed to expanding trade agreements with other partners.

He cited, for example, the agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) – a group of countries with a combined GDP of almost one and a half trillion dollars.

In the last six months, discussions began on expanding the agreement with India. In the same period, negotiations with the United Arab Emirates advanced, and talks with Canada resumed.

Also on the table are negotiations for a strategic partnership with Japan and a tariff preference agreement with Vietnam.

Lula also highlighted the need to expand regional trade among Latin American countries.

“In the region, we hope to make rapid progress in negotiating an agreement with Panama. We also need to update agreements with other South American countries – such as Colombia and Ecuador. Intra-regional trade in South America is far below its potential. It accounts for only 15 percent of trade flows, while in Asia and Europe it stands around 60 percent. The inclusion of the sugar-alcohol and automotive sectors in Mercosur rules could help to change this situation,” he went on to say.