Brazilian households lost over USD 12 billion to gambling last year. This amount represents the net figure – the difference between the money wagered and the money returned as winnings. It stands at an average of USD 920 million per month, covering October 2024 through March 2026.

The losses total 0.68 percent of the country’s gross national disposable household income and include transfers made via Pix to betting companies. During the same period, bets generated nearly USD 68 billion in transactions via the instant payment method.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Fintechs warned for handling illegal betting funds.
• Brazil expands telemedicine care for gambling addiction.

The data can be found in a report released this Thursday (Aug. 6) by the National Committee of Finance Secretaries (Comsefaz) and were based on Central Bank statistics.

The study shows that, since the regulation of sports betting in January last year, there has been a shift in the volume of Pix transfers directed toward the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sector – indicating that a larger portion of household income is being spent on betting.

The law regulating sports betting requires companies to block access for users identified as compulsive gamblers. According to attorney Júlio Leone, however, this has not been happening.

“When it is detected that a person has a gambling addiction […], the algorithm should freeze their account. But it does the opposite – it sends more bonuses, more vouchers, and more incentives to encourage them to keep betting. That’s when they lose all their money.”

Since October last year, when the ban on gambling for recipients of the Bolsa Família welfare program went into effect, there has been a slowdown in the pace of transactions, the figures show.

The results indicate that the measure had concrete effects on the aggregate volume of transactions, suggesting that lower-income families had a significant presence in the betting market.

The fourth consecutive cut in the Selic rate, decided on Wednesday (Aug. 5) by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of Brazil’s Central Bank, was well received by economic agents but is still considered insufficient to support industrial sector growth.

In a statement, the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan) emphasized that the ongoing cycle of Selic rate cuts represents a positive sign for economic activity, but that the still-high level of the rate keeps credit expensive and delays investment.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Brazil’s Central Bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 14%.
• Brazil’s Central Bank tightens rules for virtual asset firms.
• Brazilian industry grows 0.7% in April.

“The high cost of capital delays investment, hinders production modernization, and limits Brazilian companies’ ability to improve productivity and compete in domestic and foreign markets. This situation is reflected in the performance of the manufacturing sector, which grew by only 0.4 percent in the first half of the year, according to Brazil’s statistics bureau, the IBGE.”

Along the same lines, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) noted that interest rates have remained restrictive for 55 months and that the Selic rate is 3.6 percentage points above the level indicated by the Taylor Rule, which estimates an appropriate rate at 10.4 percent. The rule is used to calculate an interest rate that helps control inflation without holding back economic growth.

“The real interest rate, at approximately 10 percent, is well above the equilibrium rate estimated by the Central Bank itself at 5 percent, indicating that there is room for more significant Selic rate cuts without compromising the fight against inflation.”

Among labor organizations, Força Sindical said the 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate was insufficient. According to the labor federation, high interest rates make credit more expensive, curb investment, discourage consumption, and hinder job creation.

“We missed an excellent opportunity to promote a sharp reduction in interest rates, boost confidence in the productive sector, and further stimulate the economy.”

Outlook

Camilo Cavalcanti, a portfolio manager at Oby Capital, assessed that the Monetary Policy Committee maintained its message that the full extent of the interest rate cut cycle will be determined by incoming data, without any prior commitment, and reinforced the asymmetric balance of upward risks.

“At the end of the statement, Copom explicitly cited the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the elevated risks surrounding the baseline scenario as reasons for ‘calm and caution’ in the conduct of monetary policy. Given the contrast between a more favorable current scenario and forward-looking communication that remains cautious, we assess that Copom is still leaving open the possibility of continuing the cycle of interest rate cuts at its next meeting.”

Copom

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Selic rate - the Brazilian economy’s benchmark interest rate - by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down from 14.25 percent to 14 percent per year.

This marks the fourth consecutive interest rate cut by the committee. The decision was made at a meeting held at the bank’s headquarters in Brasília.

According to the institution, the new gradual 0.25 percentage point reduction is consistent with the strategy of bringing inflation toward the center of the target range over the coming months.

Regarding the external environment, the Central Bank once again pointed to uncertainty surrounding armed conflicts in the Middle East and the monetary policies of some advanced economies.

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of Brazil on Wednesday (Aug. 5) cut the Selic rate - the Brazilian economy’s benchmark interest rate - by 0.25 percentage points, from 14.25 percent to 14 percent per year. The decision marks Copom’s fourth consecutive interest rate cut.

The Central Bank uses the Selic rate as a monetary policy tool to slow economic activity and help control inflation.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Brazil’s Central Bank tightens rules for virtual asset firms.
• Brazilian economy grows 0.7% in May, driven by household consumption.
• Food prices decline, official inflation slows to 0.16% in June.

According to the institution, the latest gradual reduction of 0.25 percentage points is consistent with its strategy of bringing inflation back toward the midpoint of the target range.

The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) for the period beginning in January 2025 is 3 percent, with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points - that is, from 1.5 to 4.5 percent.

“Without compromising its primary objective of ensuring price stability, this decision also helps smooth fluctuations in economic activity and foster full employment,” the bank said in a statement.

Regarding the external environment, the Central Bank once again pointed to uncertainty surrounding armed conflicts in the Middle East and the monetary policies of some advanced economies.

“This scenario calls for caution on the part of emerging economies in an environment marked by rising volatility in asset and commodity prices,” the institution noted.

Regarding the domestic outlook, the bank emphasized that the set of indicators released since the previous meeting suggests “a gradual moderation in economic activity, although it remains resilient, with mixed signals across sectors and a tight labor market.”

From June 2025 to March this year, the Selic rate remained at 15 percent per year, reaching its highest level in nearly 20 years.

The Monetary Policy Committee began cutting interest rates in March amid falling inflation. However, the war in the Middle East, which has pushed up fuel and food prices, is making further rate cuts more difficult.

Brazilian exports reached an all-time high in June, contributing to an improvement in the country’s external accounts.

According to statistics released on Tuesday (Jul. 28) by Brazil’s Central Bank, the current account deficit stood at USD 2.3 billion in June, less than half the USD 5.2 billion deficit recorded in June 2025.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Brazilian economy grows 0.7% in May, driven by household consumption.
• Brazil launches BRL 130M export diversification plan.

The reduction in the deficit was driven mainly by the performance of the trade balance. The trade surplus reached USD 8.8 billion in June this year, compared with USD 5.2 billion in the same month last year.

On a year-over-year basis, the trade surplus increased by USD 3.6 billion.

Exports of goods totaled USD 36.4 billion, the highest figure in the Central Bank’s historical series. This result represents a 24.8 percent increase compared with June 2025. Imports also rose, reaching USD 27.6 billion, a 15.3 percent increase over the same period.

Despite the improvement in the trade balance, the services account deficit increased by USD 0.7 billion compared with June last year, totaling USD 5.1 billion.

The result was primarily influenced by higher net expenditures on international travel, transportation, and telecommunications, computing, and information services.

In the 12-month period ending in June, the current account deficit totaled USD 61.4 billion, equivalent to 2.46 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In June 2025, the cumulative deficit stood at USD 75.5 billion, or 3.52 percent of GDP.

Investments

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country recorded net inflows of USD 9.1 billion in June, compared with USD 3.1 billion in the same month last year. Over the 12-month period, cumulative FDI reached USD 89.3 billion, equivalent to 3.58 percent of GDP.

Portfolio investments, meanwhile, recorded a net outflow of USD 0.6 billion in the month. There was a net withdrawal of USD 2.2 billion from stocks and investment funds, partially offset by inflows of USD 1.6 billion into domestic securities.

Reserves

International reserves closed June at USD 367.6 billion, a decrease of USD 3.6 billion compared with May. According to the Central Bank, exchange rate fluctuations among the currencies that make up the reserves, as well as dollar sales in the spot market, contributed to the decline.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised Pix as one of the main drivers of the transformation of the Brazilian financial system, but warned that the Central Bank needs financial and budgetary autonomy to maintain its supervisory capacity in light of the sector’s expansion.

The conclusions can be found in the Financial System Stability Assessment report, released Thursday (Jul. 23).

Notícias relacionadas:

• Tariff hike: Pix system challenges US financial control over Brazil.
• Tariff hike: New 12.5% US tariff on Brazilian products takes effect.

The document, prepared in partnership with the World Bank following technical missions to Brazil from December 2025 to March 2026, states that the country’s financial system is resilient but faces challenges related to staffing shortages at supervisory agencies, legal constraints, and the need for institutional strengthening. The previous report of this kind was prepared in 2018.

Pix

According to the IMF’s assessment, Pix has established itself as a key tool for financial inclusion, increased competition, and the digitization of the Brazilian banking market.

Emerging digital banks, the text argued, have reduced concentration in the banking sector and continue to foster competition and efficiency, which has also led to lower credit rates.

The report highlights that the instant payment system has accelerated the digital transformation of the financial sector and driven the growth of digital banks.

At the same time, the authority warns of increased cyber risks and digital fraud, advocating for the strengthening of the system’s governance.

Among the recommendations are the adoption of an official oversight policy for PIx and the separation of the Central Bank’s operational and supervisory functions.

Autonomy

In addition to praising Pix, the IMF states that it is urgent to strengthen the Central Bank’s structure to ensure the stability of the financial system.

Brazil, the report says, should adopt measures to address staffing constraints in supervisory agencies and grant full budgetary autonomy to the Central Bank of Brazil, in addition to expanding legal protections for civil servants and updating legislation on the resolution of financial institutions.

In the IMF’s view, the progress made since the last review in 2018 has been significant, but obstacles that limit the monetary authority’s ability to act persist.

The authorities, the text goes on to say, have made substantial progress, but still face challenges – primarily stemming from staffing constraints, a lack of legal protection, and limitations on legal authority.

The IMF states that these limitations reduce the intensity of banking supervision and may increase reliance on self-regulatory bodies in the capital markets.

Despite these recommendations, the IMF concludes that the Brazilian financial system remains sound and capable of absorbing economic shocks.

The report highlights the importance of maintaining the inflation-targeting regime, robust institutions, and the continuation of structural reforms to preserve the country’s financial stability.

Response from the Central Bank

In a statement, the Brazilian Central Bank said it welcomes the report and noted that the document contributes to the improvement of economic and financial policies.

“The Central Bank thanks the technical teams at the IMF and the World Bank for the quality of their work, for the constructive dialogue maintained throughout the process, and for the high technical standard of the analyses presented in the reports.”

The Central Bank also highlights that the IMF recognized the progress made by the Brazilian financial system since 2018, the transformative role of Pix, and the need to strengthen the institutional framework to secure resources, rebuild the civil service workforce, and preserve supervisory capacity.

Ministry of Finance

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance also issued a statement noting that Brazil had the second-largest upward revision in growth projections among G20 economies. The IMF expects Brazil’s gross domestic product to grow 2.4 percent in 2026. The forecast for next year was also revised upward, reaching 2.2 percent.

The ministry further pointed out that the report acknowledges that the fiscal consolidation path proposed in the country’s Budget Guidelines Bill presented in April will lead to the stabilization of public debt.