Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Relations condemned Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, carried out one day after the ceasefire announced by Iran and the US in the Middle East.

“The intensification of this offensive follows last night’s announcement of a ceasefire in the armed conflict in the Middle East and threatens to plunge the region into a new escalation of violence and instability,” the ministry said in a statement. 

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The ministry notes that the attacks targeted extensive areas and left an initial toll of 254 dead and 1,165 wounded. The Brazilian government added that it defends Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“Brazil urges Israel to immediately suspend its military actions and withdraw all its forces from Lebanese territory. It also calls on the parties involved to fully comply with the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006),” the statement reads.

The resolution, adopted unanimously by the UN Security Council, calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon with the creation of a buffer zone between the two countries to be controlled by the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Ceasefire violated

Despite the ceasefire announced by the US and Iran, Israel has launched its largest offensive in Lebanon since the start of the current phase of the conflict. 

Iran has threatened to break the ceasefire due to Israeli aggression, emphasizing that the agreement called for a truce on all battlefronts in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump has stated that Lebanon was not part of the agreement, but the ceasefire mediator, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, confirmed that ending the fighting in Lebanon was part of the talks.

Countries such as France, the UK, Spain, and representatives of the European Union have been pressing for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire agreement.

On Thursday, Lebanese President Masoud Pezershkian said that the continued attacks against Lebanon render negotiations to end the war “meaningless.”

Background

Israel’s airstrikes against Lebanon intensified with the outbreak of war in Iran, after Hezbollah resumed attacks against Israel on March 2.  

Hezbollah claimed it was acting in retaliation for Israel’s attacks on Lebanon in recent months and in response to the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah dates back to the 1980s, when the Shiite militia was formed in reaction to Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon to persecute Palestinian groups seeking refuge in the neighboring country.

In 2000, Hezbollah succeeded in expelling Israelis from the country. Over the years, the group has become a political party with seats in Parliament and participation in governments.

Lebanon was also attacked by the Israeli government in 2006, 2009, and 2011.

Brazil’s Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo stated on Monday (Mar. 30) that Brazil is in a more favorable position than other countries to face the volatility in oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East. The executive participated in the J. Safra Macro Day, held in São Paulo this morning.

“Of course, everyone would prefer to be in a situation without all these potential risks and shocks that the world has been facing in recent years. But when I compare Brazil to its peers, it seems to be in a relatively more favorable position,” he stated.

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Galípolo argued that this advantage stems from the fact that Brazil exports more oil than it imports, as well as from the contractionary monetary policy adopted by the financial institution, which has kept the nation’s benchmark interest rate – the Selic – at 14.75 percent per year.

“Compared to other central banks, which are closer to a neutral interest rate, I think this also puts us in a more favorable position relative to our peers,” he noted.

In his view, the current high interest rate environment in Brazil has created a buffer that should allow for a cut in the benchmark rate even amid pressure from the war in the Middle East.

“This buffer, which was built up through a more conservative stance during the last few [monetary policy committee] meetings, has allowed us – even in the face of new developments – to maintain the overall policy stance,” he said. “So, we decided to stick to our path and begin the cycle of monetary policy calibration.”

All these factors, he went on, suggest that Brazil is currently “more like an ocean liner than a jet ski.”

“We’re not going to make any sudden or drastic moves. That’s why, in the [monetary policy report], I was careful to point out that the buffer has given us time to observe, understand, and learn more,” he declared.

Inflation

According to Galípolo, this volatility in oil prices on the international stage is likely to lead to higher inflation in Brazil and also to a slowdown in the country’s economy in 2026.

The Central Bank president also said that, in Brazil, rising oil prices have often had a positive impact on the GDP – which is however unlikely to be the case this time.

“This seems to me to be a rise in oil prices of a nature quite different from the past. It does not stem from a demand cycle. It does not stem from an increase in demand, but rather from a supply shock,” he said.

“So, at the Central Bank, our view is that we are likely going to see higher inflation and lower growth,” he projected.