The Brazilian government’s economic team has proposed a primary surplus target of BRL 73.2 billion for 2027, the first year of the next presidential term. The figure corresponds to 0.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and was presented in the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) sent to Congress on Wednesday (Apr. 15).

If confirmed, it would mark the first positive result in federal accounts since 2022, considering all public spending.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Brazil budget bill projects 2.56% GDP growth in 2027.
• Brazil’s balance of trade posts lowest March surplus since 2020.
• Brazil plan targets 10% of GDP for education.

The primary surplus represents the government’s budget balance excluding interest on public debt. For this year, the government forecasts a small surplus of BRL 3.5 billion under official criteria. However, when spending outside the fiscal framework is included, the forecast shifts to a deficit of BRL 59.8 billion.

The proposal will need congressional approval and will apply to the next president-elect, who may maintain or alter the rules with lawmakers’ consent.

Spending limits

Under the fiscal framework rule, which limits real spending growth (above inflation) to 70 percent of real revenue growth, federal spending could rise by up to 3.3 percent in 2027.

In absolute terms, the Brazilian government could spend up to BRL 2.541 trillion in 2027. Of that total, the Executive Branch could spend up to BRL 2.441 trillion.

Next steps

The PLDO sets broad budget guidelines, while details on revenue and expenditure will be presented by August 31 with the submission of the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA).

The proposal underscores the challenge facing the next administration in balancing public accounts amid persistent fiscal pressures and moderate economic growth.