Brazilian exports to the United States fell 11.3 percent in April compared to the same month last year, while sales to China grew 32.5 percent during the period. The data were released on Thursday (May 7) by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services.

Sales to the United States totaled USD 3.121 billion in April of this year, compared to USD 3.517 billion recorded in April 2025. Imports of US products fell 18.1 percent, from USD 3.780 billion to USD 3.097 billion.

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With these figures, the trade balance between both countries closed April with a USD 20 million surplus for Brazil.

Impact of tariffs

This marked the ninth consecutive decline in Brazilian exports to the US market since the Trump administration imposed a 50 percent tariff in mid-2025.

Despite the removal of some Brazilian products from the tariff list at the end of last year, the ministry estimates that 22 percent of Brazilian exports will remain subject to the tariffs imposed in July 2025. This group includes items subject only to the 40 percent additional tariff, as well as products on which the extra rate is added to the 10 percent base rate.

According to Herlon Brandão, director of the Department of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies, the figures indicate a gradual recovery in trade flows.

“We are still seeing a decline in exports, but they have been recovering over the past few months. This year, we surpassed USD 3 billion after several months below that level,” said Brandão.

Chinese growth

Conversely, Brazilian exports to China grew by 32.5 percent in April, reaching USD 11.610 billion, compared to USD 8.763 billion in the same month of 2025.

Imports from the Asian country also increased, rising 20.7 percent from USD 5.018 billion to USD 6.054 billion.

This result secured Brazil a USD 5.56 billion trade surplus with China in the fourth month of the year.

From January to April, Brazilian exports to the Chinese market grew by 25.4 percent, totaling USD 35.61 billion. Imports saw a slight decline of 0.4 percent, totaling USD 23.96 billion.

As a result, Brazil’s trade surplus with China for the period reached USD 11.65 billion.

The increase in soybean and oil exports led the trade balance to record the highest surplus for the month of April since the start of the historical series, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services announced on Thursday (May 7). Last month, exports exceeded imports by USD 10.537 billion.

The result represents a 37.5 percent increase compared to the same month in 2025, when the surplus stood at USD 7.664 billion. Since the start of the historical series in 1989, this is the third-highest surplus for any month, surpassed only by May 2023 (USD 10.978 billion) and March 2023 (USD 10.751 billion).

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The value of exports and imports was as follows:

Exports: USD 34.148 billion, up 14.3 percent compared to April last year.
Imports: USD 23.611 billion, up 6.2 percent in the same comparison.

For both exports and imports, these figures also represent records for the month of April since the beginning of the historical series.

Year-to-date

In the first four months of the year, the trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 24.782 billion, a figure 43.5 percent higher than that recorded in the same period last year. In addition to the recovery in commodities (primary goods traded on international markets), this growth is due to the import of an oil rig in February 2025, a transaction that did not occur in 2026.

The breakdown was as follows:

Exports: USD 116.552 billion, up 9.2 percent compared to the same period last year.
Imports: USD 91.770 billion, up 2.5 percent in the same comparison.

The cumulative surplus is the second largest in the historical series, surpassed only by the first four months of 2024 (USD 26.925 billion).

Products

The main products responsible for the increase in exports in April were as follows:

• Agriculture and livestock: soybeans (+18.8%), cotton (+43.7%), and live animals, excluding fish and crustaceans (+148.4%);
• Extractive industry: crude petroleum oils (+10.6%), iron ore (+19.5%), and copper ores (+55%);
• Manufacturing: fresh, chilled, or frozen beef (+29.4%), non-monetary gold, excluding gold ores and concentrates (+75.9%), and pumps, centrifuges, air compressors, and fans (+321.5%).

In absolute terms, the two items that drove monthly growth the most were soybeans, with exports up by USD 1.105 billion compared to April last year, driven by the harvest and rising prices. Next was crude oil, with an increase of USD 458.98 million.

In the case of oil, the volume exported fell by 10.6 percent, but the average price rose by 23.7 percent due to the war in the Middle East.

Imports

Regarding imports, the increase is mainly linked to vehicles, with purchases from abroad rising by USD 654.33 million in April compared to the same month in 2025.

Cumulative investments in solar energy in Brazil have exceeded BRL 300 billion, including both large-scale plants and self-generation systems, according to the Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (ABSOLAR).

Despite this historic progress, the sector has faced a recent slowdown, with a decline in the pace of new projects over the past year.

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Among the main factors contributing to the slowdown are the curtailment of renewable power plants, often involving surplus generation without financial compensation for developers, and connection difficulties for small systems due to grid capacity constraints.

Key industry figures:

• Cumulative investments: over BRL 300 billion;
• Jobs created: over 2 million in the past decade;
• Installed capacity: 68.6 gigawatts (GW) in operation;
• Public revenue: BRL 95.9 billion;
• Share of the electricity mix: 25.3% (the country’s second-largest source).

This growth is occurring despite a significant decline in 2025. According to the survey, the capacity added to the energy grid fell by 25.6 percent, from 15.6 GW in 2024 to 11.6 GW the following year.

Solar energy is spreading across Brazil, with large-scale plants in various regions and distributed generation systems (small plants and rooftops) installed in more than 5,000 municipalities.

Distributed generation (small plants and rooftops):

• São Paulo: 6.5 GW;
• Minas Gerais: 5.8 GW;
• Paraná: 4.2 GW.

According to ABSOLAR’s assessment, recent obstacles have limited the sector’s growth potential, resulting in business closures, canceled investments, and job losses. According to Barbara Rubim, the association’s president-elect for the 2026–2030 term, the priority will be to promote the sustainable expansion of solar energy, focusing on regulatory improvements, strengthening the free energy market, and incentivizing complementary technologies such as energy storage and green hydrogen.

Among the main points advocated by the association is the regulation of electricity storage under the Special Incentive Regime for Infrastructure Development (REIDI). According to the association, this can be implemented through administrative regulations - via presidential decrees or ministerial ordinances - without the need for congressional approval of bills or provisional measures.

The organization also advocates for changes to promote solar energy storage projects under the special tax regime for sectors included in the tax reform.

Founded in 2013, ABSOLAR brings together companies and institutions across the photovoltaic energy chain and works to coordinate the sector in support of Brazil’s energy transition.

The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union takes effect on May 1, with a direct impact on Brazilian exports. According to estimates by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), more than 80 percent of the products sold by Brazil to the European bloc will have zero import tariffs in this initial phase.”

With no European Union tariffs, Brazilian companies will be able to sell most of their products to Europe without paying import duties, reducing costs and increasing their competitiveness against competitors from other countries.

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The agreement creates one of the largest free trade areas in the world, connecting a market of over 700 million consumers. According to CNI, more than 5,000 Brazilian products will have zero tariffs immediately, including industrial and agricultural goods.

Of the 2,932 products that will have zero tariffs from the outset:

• About 93% (2,714) are industrial goods
• The remainder includes items from the food sector and raw materials

Among the sectors expected to feel the greatest positive impact are:

• Machinery and equipment (21.8% of the 2,932 products with immediate tariff elimination);
• Food (12.5%);
• Metallurgy (9.1%);
• Electrical machinery, equipment, and materials (8.9%);
• Chemical products (8.1%).

In the case of the machinery and equipment sector, for example, nearly 96 percent of Brazilian exports to Europe will now enter duty-free. This includes products such as compressors, industrial pumps, and mechanical parts.

Strategic agreement

The agreement is considered strategic because it significantly expands Brazil’s commercial reach. Currently, countries with which Brazil has trade agreements account for about 9 percent of global imports. With the European Union’s entry, that figure could rise to more than 37 percent.

In addition, the treaty provides greater predictability for companies, with clear rules on trade, government procurement, and technical standards.

Despite the immediate impact, not all products will have tariffs eliminated at once. For more sensitive items, the reduction will be phased in gradually:

• Within 10 years in the European Union;
• Within 15 years in Mercosur;
• In some specific cases, such as new technologies, the timeline may extend to 30 years.

Next steps

The agreement’s entry into force marks only the beginning of its implementation. The Brazilian government must still regulate details such as the distribution of export quotas among Mercosur countries.

In addition, business associations from both blocs are expected to create a committee to monitor the agreement’s implementation and help companies seize new opportunities.

Despite tensions surrounding the war in the Middle East, Brazil’s Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in a row. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously reduced the Selic rate, the economy’s benchmark interest rate, by 0.25 percentage points to 14.5 percent per year.

From June 2025 to March of this year, the rate stood at 15 percent per year, the highest level in nearly 20 years. At its last meeting, Copom cut interest rates again amid falling inflation. However, the war in the Middle East, which has led to higher fuel and food prices, complicates the committee’s work.

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In a statement, the committee gave no indication of the future path of interest rates. It noted that it is monitoring the war in the Middle East and the effects of a possible prolongation on inflation.

Inflation

The Selic rate is the Central Bank’s primary tool for keeping inflation under control, as measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council for the Central Bank to pursue is 3 percent, with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points above or below.

In the latest Monetary Policy Report, released at the end of March, the Central Bank raised its forecast for the IPCA in 2026 from 3.5 percent to 3.6 percent.

The benchmark interest rate is used in government bond trading within the Special Settlement and Custody System (Selic) and serves as a reference for other interest rates in the economy. By raising it, the Central Bank curbs excess demand that puts upward pressure on prices, as higher interest rates make credit more expensive and encourage saving.

Although unpopular, the tax on low-value international purchases had positive effects for Brazil, according to a survey released on Wednesday (Apr. 22) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).

The business entity reported that the measure helped curb imports, preserve more than 100,000 jobs, and stimulate the Brazilian economy. Billions of reais in foreign products were not purchased, while the tax bolstered state revenues, the confederation stated.

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CNI calculated the effects of the Import Tax based on the average value of shipments in 2025, comparing the volume of imports it projected for the year with the amount actually recorded.

Key figures from the survey:

• BRL 4.5 billion in avoided imports;
• 135,800 jobs preserved in the country;
• BRL 19.7 billion circulating in the Brazilian economy;
• 10.9% drop in the number of international orders from 2024 to 2025;
• 23.4% decline in the number of shipments in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, before the tax took effect;
• Tax revenue of BRL 1.4 billion in 2024 and BRL 3.5 billion in 2025.

According to CNI, the tax has reduced unfair competition from imported products, particularly those from China, giving a boost to Brazilian industry.

The main objective of the tax, the confederation highlighted, is not to tax consumers but to protect the economy. “Making Brazilian industry competitive is essential to maintaining jobs and generating income,” said Marcio Guerra, CNI’s superintendent of economics.

How the tax operates

The measure establishes a 20 percent import tax on international orders of up to USD 50. In practice, the tax is collected at the time of purchase, facilitating enforcement and reducing fraud. The rule took effect in August 2024 as part of the Remessa Conforme program, created to regulate international e-commerce.

With the new rule, the volume of orders has declined. Shipments to Brazil fell from 179.1 million in 2024 to 159.6 million in 2025.