The preliminary official inflation rate for September stood at 0.70 percent, the highest since April, when it reached 0.89 percent. The result marked a reversal from August’s deflation, when the rate stood at -0.40 percent.

The main reason for the acceleration was the reversal of the Itaipu bonus, a discount consumers received on their electricity bills the previous month.

Notícias relacionadas:

• Brazil’s August inflation comes in -0.32%, lowest in four years.

The data are from the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released this Friday (Sep. 25) by Brazil’s statistics bureau IBGE.

With this result, the IPCA-15 stands at 4.47 percent for the 12-month period. In August, it was 4.24 percent. In September 2025, the preliminary inflation figure stood at 0.48 percent.

In 2026, the IPCA-15 stands at 3.82 percent. Here is the month-by-month trend in the preliminary inflation rate for the year:

• January: 0.20%

• February: 0.84%

• March: 0.44%

• April: 0.89%

• May: 0.62%

• June: 0.41%

• July: 0.06%

• August: -0.40%

• September: 0.70%

Groups

To arrive at the monthly result, IBGE calculates price changes across nine groups of goods and services. Here’s how the groups performed:

·  Housing: 2.07% (impact of 0.31 percentage points)

·  Personal expenses: 0.96% (0.10 percentage points)

·  Transportation: 0.60% (0.12 percentage points)

·  Household goods: 0.55% (0.02 percentage points)

·  Communication: 0.54% (0.02 percentage points)

·  Clothing: 0.41% (0.02 percentage points)

·  Food and beverages: 0.40% (0.09 percentage points)

·  Health and personal care: 0.13% (0.02 percentage points)

·  Education: 0.03% (0 percentage points)

Itaipu bonus

The increase in the housing category - which exerted the most pressure on the preliminary figure - is explained by the price of residential electricity, which rose 7.42 percent in September, accounting for the index’s largest individual impact (0.29 percentage points). This occurred because electricity bills had fallen 6.25 percent in August, benefiting from the Itaipu Bonus.

The bonus consists of distributing the positive balance of Itaipu’s sales account, a state-owned hydroelectric plant, which is applied as a credit to electricity bills.

In September, since this discount was no longer available, the “normal” electricity bill was compared with the lower August bill, resulting in a larger month-on-month increase. This effect had already been anticipated by IBGE and analysts.

Transportation and fuels

In the Transportation group, the result was influenced by airfare, which rose 9.82 percent.

Fuel prices rose 0.22 percent, with the following price changes:

• Automotive gas: 1.56%
• Gasoline: 0.30%
• Diesel: -0.78%
• Ethanol: -0.22%

Food

In the food and beverage group, the subgroup for food consumed at home rose 0.38 percent in September. In August, a 0.97 percent decline had been recorded.

The largest increases in food consumed at home were:

• Tomatoes: 20.76%
• Rice: 2.39%
• Meat: 1.30%

The most notable decreases were:

• Carioca beans: 6.33%
• Onions: 4.41%
• Ground coffee: 1.36%

Inflation preview

The IPCA-15 uses essentially the same methodology as the IPCA - the so-called “official inflation” measure - which serves as the basis for the government’s inflation-targeting policy: a 3 percent year-over-year rate, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points on either side.

The difference lies in the price-collection period and geographic coverage. For the preliminary report, the survey is conducted and released before the end of the reference month. For the current release, data were collected from August 15 to September 15.

Both indices are based on a basket of goods and services for households earning from one to 40 minimum wages. Currently, the minimum wage is BRL 1,621.

The IPCA-15 collects prices for 367 products and services (10 fewer than the IPCA) in 11 locations across the country: the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The IPCA covers 16 locations, including Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, and Aracaju.

Last Monday’s (21) Focus Bulletin - a survey by Brazil’s Central Bank of financial market institutions - indicates that the market expects September inflation at 0.52 percent.