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Вчера — 10 февраля 2026Основной поток

Brazil’s January inflation stands at 0.33%, remains within target

10 февраля 2026 в 16:42

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Electricity and gasoline prices rose in January, causing Brazil’s official inflation for the month of the year to close at 0.33 percent, the same level as in December. In January 2025, the rate was 0.16 percent.

With this result, official inflation—as gauged by the country’s consumer price index IPCA—has reached 4.44 percent over the past 12 months, thus within the government’s maximum tolerance limit.

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Gasoline exerted the greatest upward pressure, accounting for 0.10 percentage points (p.p.) of the index, while cheaper electricity bills accounted for -0.11 p.p.

The data were released Tuesday (Feb. 10) by the statistics bureau IBGE.

Target

The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) is three percent, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below – i.e., a range of 1.5 to 4.5 percent. Since last November, the IPCA has been within the tolerance limit.

Since the beginning of 2025, the target assessment period has been the previous 12 months, rather than just the end of the year (December). The target is considered unmet if the tolerance range is exceeded for six consecutive months.

Index

The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. In total, prices are collected for 377 sub-items, including products and services, across ten metropolitan areas in the country.

До вчерашнего дняОсновной поток

Petrobras acquires 42.5% stake in oil exploration block in Namibia

6 февраля 2026 в 21:22

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Petrobras has acquired a stake in an oil exploration block off the coast of Namibia, in southwestern Africa. The area is located in the Lüderitz Basin and covers approximately 11,000 square kilometers (km²).

The information was disclosed in a material fact, a statement that companies make to investors.

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Brazil’s state-owned company states it acquired a 42.5-percent stake in the area, identified as Block 2613. French oil company TotalEnergies, Petrobras’ partner in oil production in Brazil, acquired another 42.5 percent.

Namcor Exploration and Production, a Namibian government-owned company, owns 10 percent, while Eight Offshore Investment Holdings holds five percent.

The stakes acquired by Petrobras and TotalEnergies were sold by Eight and Maravilla Oil & Gas.

The statement does not specify the purchase price. The company adds that the deal’s completion is still subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions – including government and regulatory approvals, notably from Namibia’s Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Energy.

Search for reserves

Petrobras President Magda Chambriard points out that the new stake is part of the company’s efforts to rebuild its oil and gas reserves.

“We have been carefully evaluating areas that have shown good prospects both in Brazil and in other parts of the world,” she said, adding that the purchase marks the oil giant’s return to Namibia.

Petrobras Exploration Director Sylvia Anjos underscored the company’s knowledge of the geological formation of the exploratory basin.

“We have extensive geological knowledge of the region, which is largely analogous to our sedimentary basins. We are looking closely at the west coast of Africa and the good opportunities there. This was the case in São Tomé and Príncipe, South Africa, and now Namibia,” she noted.

Africa

Petrobras is investing in the African continent with a view to increasing its current oil reserves, which are expected to start declining in the 2030s. 

Petrobras resumed operations on the African continent in 2024. On February 8 of that year, the company completed the acquisition of stakes in three exploration blocks in São Tomé and Príncipe, off the west coast of Africa. In two blocks, the stake is 45 percent; and in the third, 25 percent.

In October 2024, Petrobras’ board of directors approved operations in South Africa, enabling the acquisition of a stake in the Deep Western Orange Basin (DWOB) block through a competitive process conducted by TotalEnergies.

Americas

In addition to positions in Brazil and Africa, Petrobras has operations in South America and the US.

In Colombia, the state-owned company announced in December 2024 the discovery of the largest gas reserve in the country’s history. The giant Sirius-2 well – explored in a consortium with Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-owned oil company – boasts a capacity equivalent to nearly half of Petrobras’ daily gas production in Brazil.

In Argentina, through its subsidiary Petrobras Operaciones S.A., the company holds a 33.6-percent stake in the Rio Neuquén production asset.

In Bolivia, the oil company produces gas mainly in the San Alberto and San Antonio fields, with a 35-percent stake in each of these service operation contracts, which are operated primarily to supply gas to Brazil and Bolivia.

In the US, operations take place in deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico, with a 20-percent stake held by Petrobras America Inc., forming the MPGoM joint venture with Murphy Exploration & Production Company.

Brazilian exports to US fall 25.5% in January, sales to China rise

6 февраля 2026 в 16:20

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For the sixth consecutive month since the Trump administration’s tariff increase, Brazilian exports to the United States have fallen. Sales to China, however, continued to rise, according to data released on Thursday (Feb. 5) in Brasília by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.

In January, sales to the United States totaled USD 2.4 billion, a 25.5 percent decrease compared to USD 3.22 billion in the same month of 2025. Imports of US products fell 10.9 percent to USD 3.07 billion, resulting in a USD 670 million bilateral trade deficit for Brazil.

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This was the sixth consecutive decline in Brazilian sales to the US since the imposition of the 50 percent surcharge applied by the Donald Trump administration to Brazilian products in mid-2025. Although the tariff was partially revised at the end of last year, the ministry estimates that 22 percent of Brazilian exports are still subject to the extra rates, which vary between 40 percent and 50 percent.

In contrast to the United States, Brazil recorded positive results with China. Brazilian exports to the Asian country grew 17.4 percent in January, totaling USD 6.47 billion, compared to USD 5.51 billion a year earlier. Imports fell 4.9 percent to USD 5.75 billion, ensuring a surplus of USD 720 million for Brazil in the month.

Trade flow

China and the US are Brazil’s main trading partners. The trade flow - the sum of imports and exports - reached USD 12.23 billion, a 5.7 percent increase with China. Trade with the United States totaled USD 5.47 billion, an 18 percent decrease, reflecting reductions in both exports and imports.

Brazilian trade balance records second-best January result

6 февраля 2026 в 15:34

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The Brazilian trade balance registered the second-highest surplus for the month of January since records began in 1989, benefiting from a drop in imports, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) announced on Thursday (Feb. 5). Last month, exports exceeded imports by USD 4.342 billion, an increase of 85.8 percent compared to the surplus of USD 2.337 billion in the same month of 2025.

The January trade balance result is surpassed only by 2024, when the surplus reached USD 6.196 billion.

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The value of exports and imports:
Exports: USD 25.153 billion, a 1 percent decrease compared to January last year;
Imports: USD 20.810 billion, a 9.8 percent decrease in the same period.

The value of exports is the third highest for the month of January since records began in 1989, surpassed only by January 2024 and 2025. Imports registered the second-highest January on record, surpassed only by the same month last year.

Sectors

In the distribution by economic sectors, exports in January varied as follows:

• Agriculture: 2.1 percent, with a 3.4 percent decrease in volume and a 5.3 percent increase in average price;
• Extractive industry: minus 3.4 percent, with a 6.2 percent increase in volume and a 9.1 percent decrease in average price;
• Manufacturing industry: minus 0.5 percent, with a 0.6 percent decrease in volume and a 0.1 percent decrease in average price.

Brazil to export aircraft to Japan

5 февраля 2026 в 17:24

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Eve Air Mobility, an Embraer subsidiary that develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, announced the sale of two vehicles to the Japanese company AirX, which operates in air transport and currently uses helicopters. The contract may be expanded, as it includes an option to purchase up to 50 units.

With deliveries scheduled for 2029 and operations planned in Tokyo and Osaka as last-mile vehicles for tourist routes, the sale marks the company’s first in the Asia-Pacific region. Embraer and Eve are participating in the Singapore Airshow, one of the largest trade fairs in the sector.

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“We are excited to partner with Eve Air Mobility to bring next-generation air transport to Japan,” said Kiwamu Tezuka, founder and CEO of AirX, in an official statement announcing the agreement.

For him, this collaboration reinforces the commitment to sustainability and innovation, in addition to positioning AirX at the forefront of the evolving air mobility market.

With the announcement, the company’s shares on the B3 interrupted their downward trend. Launched in July 2025 at BRL 39 per share, they ended trading on Wednesday (Feb. 4) at BRL 19.80. On Tuesday (3), they were traded at BRL 19.62, matching the lowest value recorded on September 17. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the company’s shares have been falling since January 22, when they were quoted at USD 4.59. On Tuesday, they closed at USD 3.65.

Brazilian industry blames interest rates for 2025 slowdown

4 февраля 2026 в 17:53

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The high Selic rate - the economy’s basic interest rate - was the main reason for industrial stagnation in Brazil at the end of 2025, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) said, commenting on the Monthly Industrial Survey released Tuesday (Feb. 3) by the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE.

According to the entity, the cycle of high interest rates, currently at 15 percent per year, has made credit more expensive and dampened consumer appetite. The situation has been worsened by weak domestic demand and rising imports, which captured a significant share of the Brazilian market, the CNI argues.

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Mário Sérgio Telles, Director of Economics at CNI, described the damage caused by interest rates as “enormous.”

“The punitive level of the Selic rate has made credit more expensive for the productive sector, holding back investments, and has reduced consumer appetite for industrial products. The damage caused by high interest rates is enormous. In 2024, with a lower Selic rate, domestic demand for manufacturing goods grew four times faster than the demand recorded up to November 2025,” Telles emphasized in a statement.

This weakening, the CNI director highlighted, led to higher-than-planned inventories and a 0.2 percent decline in manufacturing output, which involves converting raw materials into consumer goods.

The confederation’s analysis also warns of external pressure: purchases of consumer goods abroad jumped 15.6 percent last year. While national industry slowed, imported products filled the gaps, hindering any attempt at recovery by local businesses throughout both semesters of 2025.

Decline in confidence

This combined effect severely impacted the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI), released at the end of January, which recorded its worst January performance in ten years. With the indicator below 50 points - the threshold separating optimism from pessimism - for 13 consecutive months, the National Confederation of Industry diagnoses a persistent lack of confidence, which is paralyzing essential investments in the modernization and expansion of Brazilian factories.

According to CNI, without a change in interest rate policy and measures to stimulate domestic demand, this year’s growth is at risk. The organization warns that continued productive inertia and weak hiring intentions could harm not only the manufacturing industry but the performance of the entire national economy in the short term.

The IBGE survey confirmed the sector’s loss of momentum. Industrial production ended 2025 with growth of just 0.6 percent, a modest result compared with the 3.1 percent expansion recorded in 2024. The official survey notes that the slowdown intensified in the second half of the year, coinciding with monetary tightening.

Brazil’s oil and gas production grew 13.3% in 2025

3 февраля 2026 в 20:35

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Oil and gas production in Brazil reached 4.897 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in 2025. The result is 13.3 percent higher than the year before and represents the highest volume ever recorded in Brazil. The previous record was 4.344 million boe/d, back in 2023.

The data come from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP), the sector’s regulatory body.

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Boe is a unit of measurement that standardizes the volume of natural gas and oil, converting gas to the energy value equivalent to a barrel of crude oil, making it possible to add up production.

The record performance in 2025 is believed to confirm the extractive industry as one of the drivers of national industry. Brazilian industrial production grew 0.6 percent last year, with the extractive industry advancing 4.9 percent, as per the latest official figures.

Gas and oil record

Oil production in specific reached a record 3.770 million barrels/day last year, 12.3 percent higher than the previous year.

Natural gas output hit 179 million cubic meters per day (m³/d), also the highest ever recorded, up 17 percent compared to 2024.

Pre-salt

When detailing the origin of oil and gas production, the agency identifies the leading role of pre-salt fields – reservoirs drilled at a depth of 5 to 7 thousand meters.

Pre-salt accounts for 79.63 percent of oil equivalent production. Post-salt accounts for 15.45 percent, and onshore fields account for 4.92 percent.

The five offshore fields with the highest oil and gas production are:

Tupi – 21.36%
Búzios – 20.47%
Mero – 14.44%
Itapu – 4.19%
Jubarte – 4.14%

By basin, Santos is the production champion, with 77.79 percent of everything extracted from the seabed. Next is the Campos basin, with 19.67 percent. Both are located on the southeast coast.

Rio de Janeiro state is the country’s largest oil producer, accounting for 87.8 percent of the oil extracted last year. From 2024 to 2025, Espírito Santo (5.12%) took the runner-up spot from São Paulo (4.89%).

Petrobras

Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras is the largest oil and gas producer in Brazil. In December, the fields operated by the state-owned company – in consortium with other oil companies or not – accounted for 90.03 percent of national production.

The fields in which Petrobras operates alone produced 23.9 percent of Brazilian production in December.

Unemployment in Brazil falls to 5.1% in December, lowest ever recorded

30 января 2026 в 16:47

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In the quarter ending in December, Brazil recorded an unemployment rate of 5.1 percent – the lowest ever recorded by the Continuous PNAD (national household sample survey).

Looking at the consolidated data for 2025, the annual unemployment rate stood at 5.6 percent, also the smallest in history. The number of employed people reached 103 million.

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Last year also saw a record in the average monthly income of Brazilian workers, which reached BRL 3,560, up 5.7 percent (or BRL 192) compared to 2024.

The number of formally employed workers in the year was also the highest ever recorded – 38.9 million people, up 1 million from the previous year.

The data were released Friday (Jan. 30) by Brazil’s statistics bureau IBGE.

The survey

The IBGE survey assesses Brazil’s labor market behavior for people aged 14 and over and takes into account all forms of employment – whether formal or informal, temporary or self-employed, for instance.

According to the institute’s criteria, only people who actively sought employment 30 days prior to the survey are considered unemployed. A total of 211 thousand households are visited across all states plus the Federal District.

The highest unemployment rate ever recorded in the time series, which began in 2012, was 14.9 percent, reached in two periods: in the rolling quarters ending in September 2020 and in March 2021 – both during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Brazil creates nearly 1.3M formal jobs in 2025

30 января 2026 в 15:13

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Pressured by high interest rates and a slowing economy, the creation of formal jobs fell in Brazil in 2025. Data released by the General Registry of Employed and Unemployed (Caged), under the Ministry of Labor and Employment, indicate that 1,279,498 formal jobs were created last year.

The indicator measures the difference between hires and layoffs. The balance is 23.73 percent lower than in 2024, when the country created 1,677,575 jobs. The data include adjustments, as the Ministry of Labor registers declarations submitted late by employers and corrects figures from previous months.

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In December alone, a month traditionally marked by layoffs, 618,164 jobs were eliminated, 11.29 percent more than in the same month of 2024. In December of the previous year, 555,430 jobs had been lost.

Sectors

Even with the drop in December, all five sectors surveyed created formal jobs in 2025.

• Services: 758,355 jobs;

• Commerce: 247,097;

• Industry (manufacturing, extraction, and other types): 144,319;

• Construction: 87,878;

• Agriculture: 41,870.

Plane maker Embraer closed out 2025 with largest-ever order backlog

29 января 2026 в 19:43

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Brazilian plane maker Embraer closed out 2025 with an order backlog of USD 31.6 billion – the largest in its history. The figure is 20 percent higher than at the end of 2024. 

The company’s commercial aviation division recorded the highest number of orders in terms of value (USD 14.5 billion), followed by executive aviation (USD 7.6 billion), services and support (USD 4.9 billion), and defense and security (USD 4.6 billion).

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In terms of the number of aircraft ordered, the commercial aviation division received a total of 1,471 orders – the E175 model led the way with 1,003 orders, followed by the E195-E2 (401) and the E190-E2 (67). The companies that placed the most orders were SkyWest (288), American Airlines (204), and Republic Airlines (187), all from the US.

In defense and security, the KC-390 Millennium was the most ordered (46 orders) – mainly by the Brazilian Air Force (18), Dutch Air Force (5), and Austrian Air Force (4). The A-29 Super Tucano received 39 orders – mainly from the Portuguese Air Force (12), the Uruguayan Air Force (6), and the Panamanian Air Force (4).

In 2025, the company delivered 244 aircraft, up 18 percent from the 206 delivered in 2024. Deliveries, in terms of number of aircraft, were led by the executive aviation division (155 deliveries), followed by commercial aviation (78) and defense and security (11).

Brazil’s public debt could reach BRL 10.3 trillion in 2026

29 января 2026 в 16:17

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After ending 2025 above BRL 8.6 trillion and at a record level, Brazil’s federal public debt is expected to reach between BRL 9.3 trillion and BRL 10.3 trillion by the end of this year. The figures were released this Wednesday (Jan. 28) by the National Treasury, which presented the targets of the Annual Financing Plan for public debt for 2026.

As in the previous year, the government created room to reduce the share of fixed-rate bonds - whose interest rates are defined in advance - and increase the participation of bonds indexed to the Selic rate, the economy’s benchmark interest rate. This strategy would help attract investors to Selic-linked bonds, as the Selic is at its highest level in almost two years.

Composition

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According to the document, public debt is expected to end 2026 with the following composition:

• Selic-linked bonds: 46 percent to 50 percent, currently at 48.3 percent;
• Inflation-indexed bonds: 23 percent to 27 percent, currently at 25.9 percent;
• Fixed-rate bonds: 21 percent to 25 percent, currently at 22 percent;
• Exchange rate-linked bonds: 3 percent to 7 percent, currently at 3.8 percent.

These figures do not take into account the Central Bank’s dollar buying and selling operations in the futures market, which affect the results.

Bonds indexed to floating rates increase the risk of public debt because the Selic rate puts more pressure on government debt when basic interest rates rise. When the Central Bank adjusts the rate, the portion of domestic debt indexed to the Selic increases immediately.

In theory, fixed-rate bonds offer more predictability because their interest rates are defined at the time of issuance and do not vary over time. As a result, the Treasury knows exactly how much interest it will pay at maturity, when investors are reimbursed. However, fixed-rate bonds tend to carry higher rates than the Selic rate and can increase the cost of public debt during periods of economic instability.

Reserves

According to the Treasury, the government has two safety mechanisms to guarantee its financing capacity in the event of an economic crisis that prevents the Treasury from issuing bonds in the market. First, the government has sufficient international reserves to cover the maturities of external public debt in 2026, totaling BRL 33.3 billion. In addition, it has a buffer of BRL 1.187 trillion, enough to cover 7.33 months of maturities of domestic public debt.

Through public debt, the National Treasury issues bonds and borrows money from investors to meet its obligations. In return, the government commits to repaying the funds with an adjustment, which may follow the Selic rate, inflation, the exchange rate, or be pre-fixed and defined in advance.

Brazil’s Central Bank keeps benchmark interest rate at 15% per annum

29 января 2026 в 15:25

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Despite the decline in inflation and the dollar, Brazil’s Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously maintained the Selic rate, the economy’s basic interest rate, at 15 percent per year.

This is the fifth consecutive meeting at which Copom has maintained the basic interest rate. The rate is at its highest level since July 2006, when it stood at 15.25 percent per year.

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In its statement, Copom signaled that it may begin to reduce interest rates at the March meeting, provided inflation remains under control and there are no surprises in the economic scenario.

“The Committee anticipates that, if the expected scenario is confirmed, it will begin easing monetary policy at its next meeting, but reiterates that it will maintain the appropriate restraint to ensure inflation converges to the target,” the Central Bank stated.

The Selic rate reached 15 percent per year at the June meeting last year and has remained at that level since.

Inflation

The Selic rate is the Central Bank’s main tool for curbing Brazil’s official inflation, as gauged by broad consumer price index IPCA. In 2025, the indicator stood at 4.26 percent, the lowest annual level since 2018. With this result, it returned to within the ceiling of the continuous inflation target.

Under the new continuous target system, in effect since January, the inflation target pursued by the Central Bank and defined by the National Monetary Council is 3 percent, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points above or below. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5 percent and the upper limit is 4.5 percent.

In the continuous inflation targeting model, the target is calculated month by month, taking into account inflation built up over 12 months. In January 2026, inflation since February 2025 is compared with the target and the tolerance range. In February 2026, the procedure is repeated, with calculations starting in March 2025. In this way, the verification shifts over time and is no longer restricted to the December index of each year.

AI: Major security concern for businesses in Brazil

26 января 2026 в 18:16

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A ranking of business risks compiled by Allianz Commercial, the corporate insurer of the Allianz Group, shows that artificial intelligence is the main concern for Brazil’s business sector. This is the first time AI has emerged as the top business risk identified by Brazilian executives.

According to the survey, artificial intelligence continues to be viewed as a powerful strategic lever for businesses, but also as a growing source of operational, legal, and reputational risks that exceed companies’ capacity to establish governance, monitor regulation, and adequately prepare their teams.

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“Considering the growing importance of AI in society and industry, it is not surprising that it is the main driver of change in the Allianz Risk Barometer. Beyond offering enormous opportunities, its transformative potential - combined with rapid evolution and adoption - is reshaping the risk landscape and has become a central concern for companies,” said Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.

The main concerns cited by business leaders in the ranking are:

• Artificial intelligence (32% of mentions);
• Cyber incidents (31%);
• Changes in legislation and regulation (28%);
• Climate change (27%); and
• Natural disasters (21%).

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