Brazil’s official inflation closed out November at 0.18 percent, bringing the country’s price index IPCA to 4.46 percent over 12 months.

As a result, the IPCA returns to the government’s target range of up to 4.5 percent for the 12-month period. In the 12-month span ending in October, the rate was 4.68 percent. The index had been outside the tolerance range for 13 months. 

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• October inflation stands at 0.09%, lowest for the month since 1998.
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The data were released Wednesday (Dec. 10) by the statistics bureau IBGE.

The November figure is the lowest for the month since 2018, when the variation stood at -0.21 percent.

In October, the IPCA had been 0.09 percent. The main impact on the acceleration from October to November was the price of airline tickets, which rose 11.9 percent, representing 0.07 percentage points of the total inflation for the month.

Target

The government’s inflation target is three percent over 12 months, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below – a maximum of 4.5 percent.

Since the beginning of 2025, the target assessment period has been based on the previous 12 months, rather than just the end of the year (December). The target is considered unmet if the tolerance range is exceeded for six consecutive months.

According to research manager Fernando Gonçalves, if December inflation stays at up to 0.56 percent, the country will end the year with the IPCA at the upper limit of the government’s target. The December result will be announced on January 9.

The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. In total, prices are collected for 377 products and services. As it stands today, the minimum wage is BRL 1,518 (USD 277.18). Prices are collected in ten metropolitan areas across Brazil.

Interest rates

On Wednesday night, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to announce the Brazilian benchmark interest rate, the Selic, currently at 15 percent per year — the highest level since July 2006 (15.25%).

The upward trend began in September last year, due to the Central Bank’s concern about rising inflation.

The Selic is the government’s main instrument for combating inflation. High interest rates make credit more expensive and discourage investment and consumption, thus acting as a brake on the economy, reducing demand for products and services and cooling inflation as a result.