Brazil registered its second-largest net dollar outflow in history in 2025, according to preliminary data released on Wednesday (Jan. 7) by the country’s Central Bank. The total exchange flow was negative at USD 33.316 billion, second only to 2019, when it reached USD 44.768 billion.

Despite the significant outflow, Brazil’s currency, the real, appreciated throughout the year, supported by high domestic interest rates and a decline in the dollar on international markets.

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The negative performance was mainly driven by the financial channel, which accumulated a net outflow of USD 82.467 billion in 2025, the second largest in the historical series, behind only 2024. This channel includes foreign direct and portfolio investments, profit remittances, interest payments, and other financial operations.

The commercial channel recorded a net inflow of USD 49.151 billion, which was not enough to offset the overall outflow of dollars.

According to the Central Bank, the main factor behind the lower dollar inflow through the commercial channel was the increase in imports. The volume of foreign exchange contracted for external purchases reached USD 238 billion, the second largest figure on record, behind only 2022. Exports, in turn, totaled USD 287.5 billion during the year. Unlike the trade balance, which includes only exports and imports that have already been carried out, the exchange flow also encompasses operations such as advance payments and advances on foreign exchange contracts.

Outflow in December

In December, the exchange rate flow was negative at USD 13.562 billion, lower than in the same month of 2024, when it reached USD 27 billion. The result reflected a net outflow of USD 20.982 billion through the financial account, partially offset by an inflow of USD 7.421 billion through the trade account.

Traditionally, December concentrates remittances abroad for dividend payments. In 2025, these remittances intensified as companies and investors sought to anticipate the end of the income tax exemption on international remittances, which became taxable in January 2026.

The exchange flow is composed of two parts: the trade flow, which measures foreign exchange settlements for exports and imports, and the financial flow, which covers investments in companies, loans, and transactions in financial markets. Central Bank data show that the dollar outflow last year occurred through the financial channel.

Pressured by the growth of imports and lower commodity prices (primary goods with international pricing), Brazil’s trade balance ended 2025 with a smaller surplus than in 2024, despite recording the best result for a December since 1989. Last year, exports exceeded imports by USD 68.293 billion, a 7.9 percent decrease compared to the surplus registered in 2024.

The figures were released on Tuesday (Jan. 6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Despite the setback, this was the third-largest annual trade surplus since the beginning of the time series, in 1989.

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Both exports and imports hit record highs. Even with US tariffs and the fall in commodity prices, especially oil, sales abroad totaled USD 348.676 billion, a 3.5 percent increase compared to 2024.

Benefiting from economic growth, however, imports increased at a faster pace. Last year, Brazil bought USD 280.382 billion from abroad, a 6.7 percent increase.

Resilience

In a press conference, Brazil’s Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services Geraldo Alckmin said that the country’s foreign trade grew in 2025, even with tariffs and geopolitical difficulties.

“Our export volume grew by 5.7 percent. Global trade grew by 2.4 percent. So, we grew more than twice as much as global trade. This shows the resilience and good competitiveness of Brazilian products,” declared Alckmin.

In December, the trade balance registered a surplus of USD 9.633 billion, a 107.8 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This was the highest result for the month in the time series, which began in 1989, surpassing the previous record surplus of USD 9.323 billion in December 2023. Imports also reached a record value for the month.

The value of exports and imports in December was as follows:
Exports: USD 31.038 billion, a 24.7 percent increase compared to December of last year;
Imports: USD 21.405 billion, up 5.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

Products

The main products responsible for the growth in exports in December were: non-monetary gold (up 88.7%), soybeans (up 73.9%), crude oil (up 74%), and beef (up 70.5%).

A report by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), an organ linked to the Organization of American States (OAS), stated that Brazil has “strong and effective” democratic institutions and dismissed claims of censorship in the country.

According to the report, prepared after a technical visit to the country in February of this year and released on Friday (Dec. 26), the Brazilian state holds free and fair elections, maintains the separation of powers, and operates under the rule of law, with constitutional guarantees for the protection of human rights. The IACHR also affirms that there is judicial autonomy and a fully functioning system of checks and balances.

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The document contradicted the narrative promoted by allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who had sought to convince the international community that there was political persecution and restrictions on freedom of expression in Brazil.

The text also acknowledges that the country has experienced deliberate attempts to delegitimize the 2022 election results, as well as the planning and execution of an attempted coup d’état. In this context, the commission assesses that the defense of democracy is an essential condition for the full exercise of freedom of expression.

“The defense of democracy in Brazil is also a fundamental component of the defense of the right to freedom of expression, since freedom of expression requires a democratic society to be fully exercised,” the report emphasizes.

The IACHR Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression, Pedro Vaca Villarreal, was in Brazil in February and met with Bolsonaro, Supreme Court justices, government officials, and representatives of civil society. At the time, the meeting with the former president took place amid pressure from conservative lawmakers in the United States for the OAS to adopt a tougher stance against decisions by the Brazilian Supreme Court.

Warnings to the Judiciary

Despite rejecting the censorship argument, the IACHR makes recommendations and issues warnings to the Brazilian Judiciary, especially the Supreme Court. The document acknowledges the Court’s “fundamental role” in investigating and containing attacks on democratic institutions but points to concerns about the risk of excessive concentration of power.

“Although the defense of democracy should underpin the state’s actions, there is a risk of transforming a temporary solution, intended to be exceptional, into a lasting problem,” the text states, mentioning the possibility of creating precedents that could be used by authoritarian regimes in the future.

The document makes the following recommendations to the Brazilian Judiciary:

• Decisions regarding the removal of content on social media should be duly justified and communicated to the platforms and affected users;
• Restrictions on freedom of expression should not be based on vague concepts such as “information disorder” or “decontextualized information”;
• The category of “anti-democratic acts” should not be used to limit legitimate criticism of authorities.

Advocacy for regulation

The report also argues for the need to regulate digital platforms, provided that international human rights standards are respected. The IACHR recommends the creation of legal frameworks to address the challenges of the digital environment and the use of artificial intelligence.

The document, however, stressed that platforms should not be automatically held responsible for third-party content, provided they fulfill adequate moderation duties.

Overall, the OAS report reinforces the assessment that Brazil faces challenges related to freedom of expression, but within a democratic institutional environment and far from any scenario of censorship.

Political reactions

The Brazilian government assessed that the report reinforces the absence of censorship in the country and does not open the door to international sanctions against Brazilian authorities. The minister-chief of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann, welcomed the document’s content and stated that it dismantles the narrative that Brazil is living in a “dictatorship.”

“The international recognition of the truth about the coup is yet another victory for Brazilian Justice and democracy as 2025 comes to a close, and a reminder to remain vigilant against any attempt at amnesty or sentence reductions for convicted coup plotters,” Hoffmann posted on the social network X on Sunday (28).

Allies of former president Jair Bolsonaro also attempted to interpret the report in their favor. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro wrote on social media that the document confirms criticisms raised by the opposition, pointing to risks associated with concepts such as hate speech and disinformation.

“My interpretation of the report is that ‘hate speech’ and ‘disinformation’ are used to persecute predetermined targets, that democracy in Brazil is relative, and that there is no longer parliamentary immunity for right-wing politicians,” the senator wrote on X on Friday (26).

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirmed on Thursday (Dec. 18) that he intends to leave the government in February. At a coffee meeting with journalists on Thursday (18), he stated he intends to collaborate with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection campaign in 2026 and that this would be incompatible with his current role.

Under Brazilian electoral law, ministers running in the 2026 elections have until April 3 of next year to leave office. Haddad, however, said he intends to leave earlier to give the next occupant time to prepare measures typical of the economic team at the beginning of each year.

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The minister would like his successor to prepare the first edition of the 2026 bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, a document that informs the execution of the budget, in March. He would also like to leave the 2027 budget guidelines bill to the future minister, which must be sent to Congress by April 15 of next year.

Haddad said he has already communicated his desire to President Lula and did not respond when asked if he intends to run for office next year.

“First, I expressed my desire to collaborate with President Lula’s campaign. And that is incompatible with the requirements of the Finance Ministry. There is no way to collaborate with the [2026 election] campaign while serving as finance minister,” Haddad said.

“So it was in this sense that I spoke with the president, saying that if my request is granted in some way – so be a campaign collaborator in his bid for reelection – a change of leadership here would be important,” added the minister.

Haddad pointed out that he waited for the approval of the 2026 budget guidelines bill at the beginning of the month as well as the bill reducing tax incentives, approved on Wednesday (17) in the Senate, to formally communicate his decision.

“I was really careful in talking about my future after the [budget guidelines bill] was approved and after the measures needed to make sure the budget was consistent with the [bill] were approved. I was always worried that the [bill] and the budget had to be internally consistent so that the goals could be met,” he said.

The minister, who was formerly mayor of São Paulo, gave no clues about a possible candidacy in 2026. He only reported that President Lula told him he would respect the decision that “Haddad made or will make.”

A possible delay in signing the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU) may enable the conclusion of the treaty that has been under negotiation for more than two decades, said Finance Minister Fernando Haddad on Thursday (Dec. 18). More time is needed to reassure European farmers that they will not be negatively affected, he argued.

“It is worth insisting a little more on my perception. Because, first, there is no harm. There is no harm to Italian and French farmers. There is none,” the minister stated.

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The statement was made during an afternoon coffee break with journalists, before the European Commission officially announced the postponement of the agreement’s signing until January. France and Italy still face resistance from their farmers.

The agreement had been scheduled to be formalized this Saturday (20) during the Mercosur summit in Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná state, but faced resistance from European countries, especially France and Italy, due to pressure from farmers opposed to the pact.

At the meeting with journalists, Haddad said he sent a message to French President Emmanuel Macron, highlighting that the agreement goes beyond the commercial aspect and has geopolitical relevance.

The minister pointed out there is no economic damage to French and Italian farmers, as the negotiated text provides safeguards. He attributed part of the resistance to the political exploitation of internal sensitivities. “This does not correspond to the content of the agreement,” he said. Haddad said that if Europeans need “a little time” to clarify the issue to the public, “it is worth waiting.”

Meloni

Earlier, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he had spoken by phone with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. According to Lula, she is not against the agreement, but faces internal political difficulties and has asked for up to a month to convince Italian farmers. “She asked for patience for a week, ten days, a month at most,” said the president.

Negotiated for over two decades, the Mercosur–EU agreement would create one of the largest free trade areas in the world – bringing together some 722 million consumers and a combined GDP of approximately USD 22 trillion.