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Сегодня — 16 апреля 2026EnRSS

Brazilian government proposes BRL 73B primary surplus for 2027

16 апреля 2026 в 18:14

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The Brazilian government’s economic team has proposed a primary surplus target of BRL 73.2 billion for 2027, the first year of the next presidential term. The figure corresponds to 0.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and was presented in the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) sent to Congress on Wednesday (Apr. 15).

If confirmed, it would mark the first positive result in federal accounts since 2022, considering all public spending.

Notícias relacionadas:

The primary surplus represents the government’s budget balance excluding interest on public debt. For this year, the government forecasts a small surplus of BRL 3.5 billion under official criteria. However, when spending outside the fiscal framework is included, the forecast shifts to a deficit of BRL 59.8 billion.

The proposal will need congressional approval and will apply to the next president-elect, who may maintain or alter the rules with lawmakers’ consent.

Spending limits

Under the fiscal framework rule, which limits real spending growth (above inflation) to 70 percent of real revenue growth, federal spending could rise by up to 3.3 percent in 2027.

In absolute terms, the Brazilian government could spend up to BRL 2.541 trillion in 2027. Of that total, the Executive Branch could spend up to BRL 2.441 trillion.

Next steps

The PLDO sets broad budget guidelines, while details on revenue and expenditure will be presented by August 31 with the submission of the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA).

The proposal underscores the challenge facing the next administration in balancing public accounts amid persistent fiscal pressures and moderate economic growth.

Brazil budget bill projects 2.56% GDP growth in 2027

16 апреля 2026 в 17:18

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According to estimates in the 2027 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), submitted to Congress on Wednesday (Apr. 15), Brazil’s economy (GDP) is expected to grow 2.56 percent next year.

The bill also forecasts a drop in official inflation, as measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), to 3.04 percent in 2027, compared to the 3.74 percent estimated for this year.

Notícias relacionadas:

Regarding the IPCA, the projection for next year falls within the continuous 3 percent target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN), with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points. Within this range, inflation could vary between 1.5 percent and 4.5 percent next year without breaching the target.

The bill also projects the Selic, the economy’s benchmark interest rate, at 10.55 percent per year in 2027, compared with the current 14.75 percent.

The text sent to Congress projects an average exchange rate of BRL 5.47 for 2027. Although oil is currently trading at around USD 100 per barrel, the bill estimates the commodity’s average price - used to project federal government royalty revenue - at USD 67.69 next year.

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