A study released Tuesday (Mar. 31) by the NGO ACT Promoção da Saúde in partnership with Agência Bori shows that food inflation in Brazil is a structural phenomenon, making fresh products more expensive compared to ultra-processed ones.

The survey was conducted by economist Valter Palmieri Junior, who holds a Ph.D. in economic development from the State University of Campinas (Unicamp).

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Food inflation in Brazil, he says, cannot be attributed exclusively to seasonal factors – temporary fluctuations that tend to correct themselves spontaneously when the season changes. The study cites the example of rising tomato prices during the off-season.

The economist also argues that, likewise, food inflation cannot be explained solely by cyclical factors – variations caused by non-recurring events that may last for months or a few years. One example is a sudden devaluation of the exchange rate.

The study classifies food inflation as structural, resulting from persistent pressures that do not resolve on their own and require changes in the way the economy is organized.

“Inflation is structural because it does not stem solely from temporary shocks; it is specific because it is linked to the historical characteristics of the Brazilian development model,” the specialist notes in the study.

Up above inflation

In nearly 20 years, the cost of food for Brazilians has surged 302.6 percent – in other words, it has quadrupled – while the country’s overall inflation rate stood at 186.6 percent. This means that, from June 2006 to December 2025, the rise in food prices exceeded the Brazil’s broad price index IPCA — which is used to gauge the nation’s official inflation – 62 percent.

By way of comparison, Palmieri Junior notes that during the same period in the US, food prices rose about 1.5 percent above general inflation.

The researcher points out that in Brazil, when some kind of crisis occurs and food prices rise sharply, there is resistance to a decline.

“It’s easy for prices to go up, but then, at some point, for them to fall a little – that’s extremely difficult. I’ve seen this with some other countries, too,” he said in a conversation with journalists to present the study.

When breaking down food cost categories in Brazil, the study reveals that the items with the highest price increases were tubers, roots, and vegetables (359.5%); meat (483.5%), and fruit (516.2%).

Healthy foods vs. ultra-processed foods

The survey shows that the loss of purchasing power is most acutely felt when it comes to fresh foods.

“If a person allocated, for example, five percent of the minimum wage to buying food in 2006, today, with that same percentage, they would be able to buy more ultra-processed products and fewer healthy foods,” he said.

From 2006 to 2026, purchasing power for fruits fell by about 31 percent; and for vegetables, by 26.6 percent. In the case of soft drinks (+23.6%) and processed meats such as ham (+69%) and mortadella (+87.2%), it increased.

Regarding ultra-processed foods, the economist points out that the lower prices are linked to the fact that they contain ingredients like additives, “which are industrial and subject to less price fluctuation.”

In the professor’s view, the reduced impact of inflation on ultra-processed foods influences purchasing decisions, leading people to buy less healthy products.

“You start to see a shift in consumption patterns as a result.”

Export-oriented model

One of the factors driving the persistent rise in prices, the study notes, is Brazil’s integration into the global economy and its agro-export model.

The fact that the country is one of the world’s largest food exporters means that producers prioritize selling to other countries and receiving payment for their production in dollars, rather than supplying the domestic market.

The study shows that in the 2000s, the country exported 24.2 million tons of food and imported 14.2 million tons. By 2025, exports had jumped to 209.4 million tons, while imports stood at 17.7 million.

“This indicator shows the net amount of food produced in the country destined for the foreign market, reinforcing Brazil’s role as a major exporter and increasing the influence of the international market on domestic prices,” he stated.

The focus on exports leads Brazilian producers to prioritize crops that are in higher demand in other countries – such as soybeans, corn, and sugarcane.

The area devoted to growing these crops increased from 41.93 million hectares in 2006 to 79.30 million hectares in 2025. This difference is larger than the entire territory of Germany (35.7 million hectares).

During the same span, the area dedicated to the cultivation of rice, beans, potatoes, wheat, cassava, tomatoes, and bananas shrank from 10.22 million to 6.41 million hectares.

More expensive supplies

Another factor cited as a cause of recurring food price increases is the cost of agricultural supplies – fertilizers, pesticides, harvesters, and other machinery.

The study compared prices for 2006–2008 and for 2022–2024 and identified the following hikes in real terms:

fertilizers – 2,423%
herbicides and growth regulators – 1,870%
harvesters – 1,765%
insecticides – 1,301%
urea (nitrogen fertilizer) – 981%
agricultural machinery parts – 667%

In the expert’s opinion, this reflects the absence of a development strategy, with the expansion of commodities based on supplies and technologies controlled by oligopolies in developed countries.

He argues domestic prices are caught in a vicious cycle.

“This has affected prices for everyone, including that small bean farmer. He doesn’t even export, but he’ll have to pay the high cost of supplies, and that cost will be passed on to the price of beans,” he said.

Concentration

This dependence is linked to another factor that, Palmieri Junior argues, drives food inflation – concentration in the production chain.

In his study, he reveals that four foreign seed companies alone account for 56 percent of the global market.

In the case of pesticide companies, four foreign firms hold 61 percent of the market.

In agricultural machinery, four foreign companies hold a 43 percent market share.

In the food industry, the study continues, five brands from two companies hold a 74.2 percent share of the Brazilian margarine market.

A similar situation exists in the instant noodle market (73.7%). Five brands from three companies account for 83 percent of the market for chocolates.

Invisible Inflation

The economist notes that food inflation is even worse than the numbers suggest, due to “invisible inflation,” which cannot be measured. He defines this phenomenon as products that maintain their price but alter their ingredients, substituting cheaper items for more expensive ones, causing the final product to lose quality.

One example is ice cream, which now contains less milk and more sugar. The same happens with chocolate, which loses cocoa powder and gains sugar.

“If the cost is reduced by lowering quality and it sells for the same price, that’s inflation that isn’t accounted for by research agencies. How are you going to capture that?” he asked.

Solutions

The publication outlines several approaches capable of reversing the upward trend in food prices.

“The price of food is not merely an economic variable. It reflects political, distributive, and civilizational choices regarding the model of society we aim to build,” he stressed.

Among the suggestions are:

• decentralization of production and strengthening of local economies;
• rebalancing exports and domestic supply;
• strengthening of institutions such as the National Supply Company (Conab) and state supply centers (Ceasas);
• expanding access to land; and
• production credit conditional on production for the domestic market.

Palmieri Junior cited the example of developed countries, such as the US and European nations, which have carried out land reforms.

“It means making land more accessible to a segment of the population. This contributes to food sovereignty,” he said.

He believes land reform is beneficial to the interests of capitalism.

“If food is cheap, citizens have more money left over to buy other things that capitalism is producing and profiting much more from,” he noted.

“If a large portion of the population’s income has to be spent on food, other productive sectors are harmed,” he added.