The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a statement on Monday (Jun. 1) praising the “remarkable resilience” of the Brazilian economy in the face of the “multiple shocks” arising from the external and domestic pressures facing the country.

According to the organization, Brazil is “relatively protected from global oil price increases stemming from the war in the Middle East.”

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This assessment takes into account the country’s status as an oil exporter and the large share of renewable energy in its electricity generation.

The statements were released following the conclusion of the IMF’s annual mission to Brazil on Friday (May 29).

According to mission chief Daniel Leigh, the indicators “point to an economic recovery in early 2026,” which should lead to a “gradual strengthening of growth to around 2.5 percent in the medium term.”

Risks

Despite the positive assessment, the IMF warns of risks in the global environment.

“The risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, including worsening geopolitical tensions and tightening financial conditions,” Leigh warned.

Nevertheless, the institution acknowledges that the country’s resilience rests on important pillars. “Brazil’s strong policy frameworks, robust financial system, adequate reserves, and flexible exchange rate regime continue to underpin resilience.”

The IMF considers the recent interest rate cut appropriate but urges caution in light of inflationary pressures. It also recommends maintaining and strengthening fiscal efforts to ensure debt sustainability and create room for investment.

According to the organization, structural reforms and the environmental agenda are expected to drive stronger and more inclusive growth in the medium term.

Finance

Finance Minister Dario Durigan commented on the IMF’s recognition of the Brazilian economy’s resilience and reaffirmed that the government’s main goal is to achieve sustainable annual growth of at least 4 percent.

According to him, this outcome will be driven by a significant increase in productivity.

Durigan advocated continuing the government’s efforts to improve state efficiency, “backed by political leadership capable of leading serious discussions with society on Brazil’s economic challenges and advancing a fair and sustainable growth agenda.”

According to the minister, dialogue with the IMF helps support macroeconomic management efforts aimed at balancing debt and controlling inflation, while strengthening social programs and environmental protection.

He reaffirmed the government’s fiscal commitment, even in the face of external shocks, as a way to ensure that measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis remain fiscally neutral.