A study by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) indicates that Brazil has significant geological potential for critical minerals, but until recently, it had not been able to translate this potential into substantial economic production and lagged far behind countries such as Australia, China, South Africa, and Chile, among others.

Critical minerals are essential resources for strategic sectors such as technology, defense, and the energy transition, with their supply subject to risks of scarcity or dependence on a few suppliers. These minerals include lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, which are crucial for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and semiconductors.

Brazil, for example, possesses about 10 percent of the world’s reserves of these minerals, according to data from the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram), an entity representing the private sector.

The study How Important Is Brazil in the Global Chain of Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition? An Analysis of Reserves, Production, Foreign Trade, and Investments, by researchers Rafael da Silveira Soares Leão, Mariano Laio de Oliveira, and Danúbia Rodrigues da Cunha, was released on Thursday (Dec. 4).

According to the survey, Brazil’s performance in international trade over the past two decades has been modest, reflecting internal challenges and uncertainty in mineral production. “However, the expansion of investments in physical capital and the renewed spending on geological research in recent years, in line with global trends, appear to be preparing the country for a virtuous cycle of production growth,” the researchers say.

The research concludes that a new cycle of investments, “apparently underway,” could elevate Brazilian mining to a higher level of competitiveness, “but it is important that expectations regarding the sector’s impact on the Brazilian economy remain realistic.”

According to the authors of the study, from 2000 to 2019, Brazil’s mining production chain accounted for between 0.75 and 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on cycles of expansion and contraction in mineral commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which represents more than two-thirds of the sector.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued a warning this Sunday (Nov. 23) about the need to discuss countries’ sovereignty over the knowledge and added value of critical minerals. Lula spoke during the final thematic session of the G20 Leaders’ Summit – a gathering of the world’s largest economies in Johannesburg, South Africa.

On the agenda were critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and decent work - topics that were also discussed at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), which concluded this weekend in Belém, northern Brazil.

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“The way we integrate these three vectors of development will define not only our present but also the future of the next generations,” said the Brazilian president.

Critical minerals are essential resources for strategic sectors such as technology, defense, and the energy transition, with their supply subject to risks of scarcity or dependence on a limited number of suppliers.

These minerals include lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements, which are fundamental for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and semiconductors.

This G20 Summit, under the South African presidency, will issue a document on critical minerals that emphasizes processing these resources in their countries of origin and outlines the principles to be observed in their extraction and processing.

For Lula, the energy transition offers opportunities to expand technological frontiers and redefine the role of natural resource exploitation.

“Countries with a large concentration of mineral reserves cannot be seen as mere suppliers while remaining on the sidelines of technological innovation. What is at stake is not only who holds these resources, but who controls the knowledge and added value derived from them,” the president told the leaders.

“Talking about critical minerals is also talking about sovereignty. Sovereignty is not measured by the quantity of natural deposits, but by the ability to transform resources through policies that benefit the population. We need environmentally and socially responsible investments that help strengthen the industrial and technological base of countries that possess these resources,” said Lula.

Brazil, for example, holds about 10 percent of the world’s reserves of these elements, according to the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram), an organization representing the private sector.

In the country, research indicates that the pursuit of minerals needed for energy transition projects is already causing conflicts in new exploratory areas. Another study shows that this pursuit accelerates the climate crisis.

Lula recalled that Brazil created the National Council for Critical and Strategic Minerals to plan mineral exploration policies and stated that the country will not only be an exporter but also a partner in the global value chain for these elements.

AI and decent work

Similarly, the president argued that artificial intelligence (AI) represents a “unique opportunity” to promote equitable development for nations. He advocates establishing global and representative governance on the subject to ensure its benefits are shared.

“[AI] promotes innovation, increases productivity, encourages sustainable practices, and can improve people’s lives in a concrete way. The great challenge is not only to master the tool, but also to ensure that everyone can use it safely, securely, and reliably,” he said.

“When a few control the algorithms, the data, and the infrastructures linked to economic processes, innovation begins to generate exclusion. It is essential to prevent a new form of colonialism: the digital kind. It is urgent that the world’s largest economies deepen the debate on AI governance, with the United Nations at the center of this discussion,” the president added.

Lula also recalled that 2.6 billion people lack access to the digital world. According to him, 93 percent of the population in high-income countries has Internet access, compared with only 27 percent in low-income countries.

Finally, the president argued that technological development should be linked to job opportunities and worker protection, noting that 40 percent of the world’s workforce is in roles highly exposed to AI, at risk of automation or technological augmentation.

“Every solar panel, every chip, every line of code must carry the mark of social inclusion,” he noted. “We must build bridges between traditional and emerging sectors. Technology must strengthen - not weaken - human and labor rights,” Lula told the G20 leaders.

Agenda

The G20 is the main forum for international economic cooperation, created in 1999 following the Asian financial crisis. In 2008, it also became a political body, with summits of heads of state and government.

In 2025, South Africa will chair the G20 under the motto “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability,” focusing on four priorities: strengthening resilience and disaster response capacity; ensuring the sustainability of public debt in low-income countries; financing a just energy transition; and promoting critical minerals as drivers of development and economic growth.

The South African presidency concludes a cycle in which every member country will have held the group’s leadership at least once.

On the sidelines of the summit this Sunday, Lula also met with the leaders of the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA). The trilateral initiative was launched in 2003 to promote cooperation among countries of the Global South.

Lula landed in Johannesburg on Friday (21) and spoke on Saturday (22) at the first two thematic sessions of the G20, covering sustainable and inclusive economic growth as well as climate change and disaster risk reduction.

He also held bilateral meetings with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Later today, the president will travel to Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, for a working visit on Monday (24). The trip is part of the celebrations marking 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Lula is expected to return to Brazil later the same day.